–LTV : CAC
Lifetime value (LTV)
–
Cost to win (CAC)
–
What you pay up front.
Payback
–
Average customer stays
–
1 ÷ monthly churn.
Earning back the cost of one customer
Expected gross profit from one new customer, added up month by month, allowing for the chance they cancel.
To reach 3 : 1, you'd need one of these
What if price or churn changed?
LTV : CAC for each combination. Your current numbers are outlined.
How it's calculated
- Monthly gross profit = price × gross margin.
- Lifetime value = monthly gross profit ÷ (monthly churn + monthly discount rate). With no discounting, that's monthly profit × the average lifetime of 1 ÷ churn months. It's the exact total of every future month's expected profit.
- Payback is the first month in which the expected profit so far covers CAC. It allows for customers who cancel along the way, so it's longer than CAC ÷ monthly profit.
- 3 : 1 is a common rule of thumb for subscription businesses, not a law. A business can be healthy below it or struggling above it.
- Assumptions: churn is the same every month, every customer pays the same price, and the customer pays for their first month.